4Q25, up 5.8% year over year.
For individual bond investors
Your bond may be “safe” and still lose real money.
Estimate how rate moves, inflation, duration, credit spreads, and liquidity discounts can affect individual bonds, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, agency bonds, Treasuries, and private credit.
Educational estimate only. Not investment, legal, tax, or personalized financial advice.
Interactive estimate
Bond price sensitivity calculator
Enter a bond CUSIP if you have it, then use the fields below to estimate a price change. This first version does not pull live CUSIP data; it helps investors understand the mechanics before requesting a deeper review.
Market context
The U.S. bond market is enormous, and losses can hide in plain sight.
SIFMA reported $49.6 trillion of U.S. fixed income outstanding as of 4Q25, excluding MBS and ABS in the referenced fixed-income statistics page. The municipal bond market alone was $4.4 trillion outstanding as of 4Q25.
Largest analyzed outstanding category in SIFMA’s 4Q25 report.
Second-largest analyzed outstanding category.
Federal agency securities/debt reported in the 4Q25 outstanding report.
U.S. municipal bonds outstanding as of 4Q25.
2024 U.S. long-term fixed income issuance included $4.7T of Treasuries, $2.0T of corporate bonds, $1.6T of MBS, $1.3T of federal agency securities, $513.6B of municipal bonds, and $388.1B of ABS, according to SIFMA’s 2025 Capital Markets Fact Book.
State-by-state muni scale
California, Texas, and New York dominate 2025 municipal issuance.
MSRB’s municipal market facts show $582B of overall 2025 municipal bond issuance. The state figures below are issuance by state, not total outstanding debt by state, and are useful for showing where new muni supply is concentrated.
| State | 2025 muni issuance | Top 2026 state rate |
|---|
Global money map
Bonds sit inside a much larger fight over currency, inflation, and purchasing power.
Fixed coupons are paid in currency. If the currency loses purchasing power, a bond can look stable on a statement while the investor’s real wealth declines. This is why rates, inflation, central-bank policy, gold, crypto, and reserve currencies belong on the same page.
BIS preliminary 2025 survey, April 2025 daily average.
IMF COFER 2025Q4 total allocated and unallocated reserves.
Current Perplexity Finance snapshot used for this prototype.
Current Perplexity Finance snapshot used for this prototype.
XAU/USD quote snapshot fetched for the site build.
FX ranking
Largest traded currencies by daily OTC FX turnover
| Rank | Currency | Share | Daily turnover |
|---|
BIS currency shares sum to 200% because every FX transaction has two currency legs.
Reserve currency layer
Where central-bank reserve assets are held
Reserve shares come from IMF COFER 2025Q4. “Other identified” includes JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, and CHF.
Inflation still “somewhat elevated.”
The Fed’s 2026 message is that policy still revolves around the 2% inflation target and an uncertain outlook.
Near 2%, but energy risk remains.
The ECB’s 2026 projections keep inflation near target while noting geopolitical and energy-price upside risks.
From deflation psychology to 2% inflation.
BOJ guidance says underlying inflation is moving toward consistency with its price-stability target.
Policy balance: growth, liquidity, and currency stability.
China’s policy mix matters because the renminbi is now one of the top five traded FX currencies.
Real-return lens
Inflation is the bond loss that does not always show up as a red number.
Duration losses are visible when prices mark down. Inflation losses are subtler: the coupon and principal may arrive as promised, but the dollars buy less. This section makes that hidden loss more obvious.
Why investment-grade bonds can feel safer than they are
High-quality bond prices often move less violently than equities, so investors can confuse lower visible volatility with preserved purchasing power.
Ray Dalio’s inflation lens
A Dalio-style debt-cycle framework emphasizes that governments often choose money creation and currency devaluation over hard default, which can punish holders of fixed nominal claims.
Gold as a purchasing-power reference point
Gold has no coupon and can be volatile, but World Gold Council research says it has outpaced U.S. and world CPI since 1971 and has tended to perform better in higher-inflation environments.
Taxable-equivalent yield
What taxable yield would you need to match a tax-free muni?
This calculator defaults to the 2026 highest federal bracket of 37%, adds the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax when selected, and lets you choose a state. It is inspired by common municipal-bond TEY calculators, but uses original design, copy, and implementation.
What can go wrong
Bond losses are not just about default.
1. Duration risk
Longer-duration bonds can decline meaningfully when rates rise. A “safe” issuer does not eliminate mark-to-market loss.
2. Inflation risk
Even if coupons arrive on time, purchasing power can erode when the coupon rate fails to keep pace with inflation.
3. Credit spread risk
Corporate, high-yield, municipal, and private credit prices can fall if investors demand more compensation for credit risk.
4. Liquidity risk
Thinly traded bonds, structured products, and private credit may be difficult to sell without a discount when you need cash.
Built for lead generation
A review funnel for investors who thought bonds could not hurt them.
This site can become a serious education and lead-generation property: investors enter a CUSIP, estimate interest-rate sensitivity, learn about inflation-adjusted losses, and request a review of their bond portfolio.
- Individual bond loss education
- CUSIP-driven intake field
- Duration and convexity sensitivity calculator
- Private credit, corporate, municipal, agency, and Treasury risk education
- Consultation request form for follow-up
Request a bond review
Find out what your bond statement is not making obvious.
Enter contact details and the bond information you want reviewed. On custom-domain hosting, this form is prepared for Netlify Forms so submissions can notify gpgall1@gmail.com after the hosting notification is enabled.
Sources and disclosures
Duration and bond risk education uses FINRA investor materials on interest-rate changes and duration and bond risks and pricing. Market-size figures use SIFMA’s 4Q25 fixed-income outstanding report, U.S. fixed income securities statistics, and 2025 Capital Markets Fact Book. Municipal issuance data uses the MSRB January 2026 Municipal Market Facts. TEY assumptions reference MSRB taxable-equivalent-yield education, the IRS 2026 tax inflation adjustments, IRS Net Investment Income Tax guidance, and Tax Foundation 2026 state income-tax rates.
Global money-market data uses the BIS preliminary 2025 Triennial FX Survey and IMF COFER 2025Q4 reserve data. Central-bank inflation context uses the Federal Reserve March 2026 statement, ECB March 2026 decision, and Bank of Japan March 2026 statement. China policy context references the Government Work Report and the PBOC monetary-priority summary. Crypto and gold quote snapshots use Perplexity Finance pages for BTCUSD, ETHUSD, and XAUUSD. Gold/inflation context uses World Gold Council research on gold’s return attributes and gold as a strategic inflation hedge.
This website is an educational prototype. It is not personalized investment advice, a solicitation, legal advice, tax advice, or a representation that any specific bond loss is recoverable. Investors should consult a qualified financial, legal, and tax professional.